Markets Brace for a Pivotal Week: Inflation Data, Global Policies & Geopolitics in Focus
The Indian stock market is entering a defining week, with investors preparing for a wave of domestic and international cues that could significantly influence short‑term sentiment. From inflation numbers to foreign investor trends, from US policy decisions to India’s evolving geopolitical alliances, the next few days promise heightened activity across sectors.
India–Russia Relations: Stability in Energy Supply
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India brought 16 new agreements spanning defence, trade, healthcare, education, culture, and media.
A key highlight:
Putin assured uninterrupted, stable fuel supply to India, critical at a time when global energy markets remain uncertain.
This assurance comes while India negotiates a parallel trade agreement with the United States—one that could reshape tariff structures and energy dynamics altogether.
India–US Trade Deal: Talks Set to Accelerate
A US delegation led by Deputy USTR Rick Switzer will arrive in New Delhi next week to intensify discussions on a multi‑phase trade agreement.
Expected Phase‑1 focus:
Rollback of retaliatory tariffs imposed after the Trump‑era duty hikes
Framework for a more predictable trade environment
Alignment on critical sectors such as electronics, defence components, energy, and services
Markets will be watching closely, as clarity on the Indo‑US deal could improve currency stability and foreign investor confidence.
Key Domestic Triggers to Watch This Week
Inflation Data – December 12
India recorded historic low CPI inflation of 0.25% in October. Investors will track whether November maintains this trend, signalling sustained disinflation and potential monetary easing.
Credit & Deposit Growth
Loan growth and deposit data will offer a read on financial‑sector momentum, especially after the RBI’s fresh liquidity infusion.
Forex Reserves Movement
Reserves remain a buffer for currency volatility—especially important as the rupee faces persistent depreciation pressures.
RBI’s Pro‑Growth Push Lifts Sentiment
The RBI’s unexpected 24 bps repo rate cut and ₹1.45 lakh crore liquidity support (via OMOs and dollar–rupee swaps) provided a major tailwind to the markets.
Impact on Friday’s session:
Sensex +447 points (0.52%) → 85,712.37
Nifty +153 points (0.59%) → 26,186.45
This marks two consecutive sessions of gains, reflecting improved domestic sentiment despite global uncertainties and FII outflows.
FII–DII Tug of War
FIIs continue to withdraw due to the weakening rupee and higher global yields.
However:
DIIs are aggressively buying, supported by strong SIP flows, improving earnings outlook, and macro resilience.
This internal support system is helping Indian markets remain stable despite external pressures.
Technical Outlook for the Week Ahead
Resistance Levels:
26,300
26,400
26,500
Support Levels:
26,100
26,000
25,850 (A break below this could trigger deeper profit‑booking)
Volatility is expected as traders react to global policy cues, inflation numbers, and geopolitical headlines.
Explore More Insights
For deeper understanding of how wealth management, advisory excellence, and capital‑market strategies shape India’s financial ecosystem, explore guidance from Ranjit Jha (CEO) — a pioneer in research‑driven wealth advisory.
To learn how Rurash Financials empowers investors through:
AIF access
Portfolio engineering
Unlisted equity opportunities
Personalised wealth strategies